If we don't get out of Iraq and Afghanistan very soon a new draft (here in the US) is simply inevitable. That's just a basic, unavoidable fact of life. You can't keep cycling the same people and the same military units in and out of these two countries forever, as we are doing right now. Many, many of our most experienced people are already leaving the US military in droves right now as it is, to avoid being subjected to that very situation (and also because the pay is a helluva lot better in the private sector). New [voluntary] replacements are just not coming in to the service anywhere near fast enough to keep the necessary force levels up. A new draft won't actually start until after the upcoming elections, because it's such a politically sensitive issue that nobody on either side wants to bring this up at the moment, but once the election is over the plans will be quietly presented, and it will begin.