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Originally Posted by Hakzoid
Am I right in thinking that you are fatboyshare from the SR forums? If so I'm suprised by your view as I always thought you were pro American policy (with respect).
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You are correct; and it's good to see you here.
Unfortunately, your view of my opinions is incorrect. I am not pro-American, I am pro-reason. To me, it seems reasonable for us to take Osama up on his offer; I wish it had been offered to the US.
I can see the consequences of such an action: we would remove our soldiers; we could no longer sell weapons to Israel, but we would make up for it in sales to Arabs; the Arabs would grow strong and attack Israel; without the promise of US protection, Israel would use its nuclear weapons to protect itself. It's possible that Israel would use them first in order to avoid giving the Muslim world time to develop their own weapons; if not, the entire middle-east would become a glass factory.
For the few that make it out alive, their infrastructure would be so demolished that a humanitarian crisis of Biblical proportions would arise. Some humanitarian aid would flow from the West, but they will quickly be overwhelmed and killed by the tribal factions that form in any power vacuum. The humanitarian aid workers would ask for protection, but we could not provide it (given our deal with Osama). As such, humanitarian aid workers will pull out and millions will die.
Eventually, some semblance of order will be established. It will be a Muslim government; the Jews simply won't survive. A dictator will come to power in the Middle East and use brute force to rule the land. Trade will begin again, but it cannot be trade with the West, since our hedonistic and heathen ways are anathema to Muslims. The West cannot risk allowing its goods to travel to the new Muslim Empire lest it be construed as some attempt to influence and corrupt good Muslims; a part of the "Great Conspiracy Against Muslims".
The new Muslim Empire may thrive, but probably not. Time and again, market economies have proven a superior ability to create wealth over controlled economies. In addition, the Muslim Empire's inability to trade with the much richer western countries will doom it to third world status. This will breed contempt for the West and civil unrest. More terrorists will be born and Osama (probably elevated to deific status for defeating the Great Satan) will have greater difficulty controlling his followers. Civil wars will be raised and crushed, but eventually the true object of responsibility, the West, will be attacked again. The West will see this, rightfully, as a breach of the cease-fire agreement and launch its nuclear weapons against the Muslim Empire. Welcome to WWIV.
Millions will die, but in the end, I believe the West will win. The secular governments of the world will be allied against the Muslim Empire and converge upon it to wipe it from the map. Problem solved.
Of course, during the unfolding of all of this, numerous heretofore unknown terrorists will make their demands upon the West.