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Originally Posted by Barça
Swamp Thing:
I disagree. How can the attack have been the final nail when in fact the day before the attacks the PP had a more than healthy lead? The PP didnt really lose that many votes, but if you reckon that the attack had nothing to do, you are not paying attention to the millions of voters that didnt bother on the past election. I admit that they had put themselves (PP) in ann awkard situation, but the attack influenced vote enormously.
The group which has claimed a ceasefire is not yet recognised as being behind the attack, since Al Qaeda has also taken credit for the attack (the ones you mention are ABu HAfs El Asri or something like that) ANyways, no one, absolutely no one cares what that letter says. No government is going to start supporting fundamentalism, so I cant see their 'ceasefire' as having any real value.
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Barça, i don´t mean to say that the bombings had no effect on the vote, only that most spaniards were already leaning towards the opposition and considering to change sides, due to many diferent situations:
The Prestige, where the government LIED and acted in a totally inadequate fashion, and only way after the damage was done.
The Iraq war, where some 90% of the people were against and protested strongly, but Aznar chose to ignore the wishes of the people.
And then ETA, wich Aznar pledged to finish off and totally wipe out, wich he didn´t acomplish at all.
The Madrid bombings were the feather that finally tipped the scale. It forced many spaniards to come out of "hiding" and vote, a thing that many neglected to do in the previous elections.
And i wouldn´t place too much weight on the pre-bombing polls either. Polls are often quite wrong, simple because not enough people are consulted.Polls use only about 1000 calls or street interviews to make their assessements, and as such they are falible. The biggest chunk of people who came out to vote and that changed their vote in regard to the past elections, was composed of young people, like college students. And this group never gets any real representation on the polls.
Older people have a harder time changing sides.
Regarding the group responsible, i think neither you or me have the capability to say they did it or not. If even the secret services fail miserably, how can we? But so far they are the most obvious and evidence backed group.
Besides, the group is a splinter group of Al-Qaeda, and thus its perfectly obvious why both would reclaim responsability. But in the end it doesn´t really matter, does it?
Another thing, don´t be so quick to discard the importance of those letters. It could be a prank joke, but it could also be jenuine. Discarding it in this point of the investigation would be irresponsable and even dangerous. :indeed: